美国2022-2032十年经济预算和规划

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1、The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032 MDart10/Sf11photo/SMAY | 2022At a Glancefte Congressional Budget Office regularly publishes reports presenting its baseline projections of what the federal budget and the economy would look like in the current year and over the next10 years if current la

2、ws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged. ftis report is the latest in that series. The Budget. CBO projects that the federal budget deficit will shrink to $1.0 trillion in 2022 (it was $2.8 trillion last year) and that the annual shortfall would average $1.6 trillion from 2023 t

3、o 2032. fte deficit continues to decrease as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) next year as spending related to the coronavirus pandemic wanes, but then deficits increase, reaching6.1 percent of GDP in 2032. fte deficit has been greater than that only six times since 1946 (see Chapter 1).

4、Outlays are projected to average 23 percent of GDP over that period, a level high by historical standards, boosted by rising interest costs and greater spending for programs that provide benefits to elderly people (see Chapter 3). Revenues are projected to reach their highest level as a shareof GDP

5、in more than two decades in 2022 and then to decline over the following few years but remain above their long-term average through 2032 (see Chapter 4).Relative to the size of the economy, federal debt held by the public is projected to dip over the next two years, to 96 percent of GDP in 2023, and

6、to rise thereafter. In CBOs projections, it reaches 110 percent of GDP in 2032 (higher than it has ever been) and 185 percent of GDP in 2052 (see Chapter 1). Moreover, if lawmakers amended current laws to maintain certain policies now in place, even larger increases in debt would ensue (see Chapter

7、5). Changes in CBOs Budget Projections. CBOs projection of the deficit for 2022 is now$118 billion less than it was in July 2021, but its projection of the cumulative deficit over the 20222031 period is $2.4 trillion more (see Appendix A). The Economy. In CBOs projections, elevated inflation initial

8、ly persists in 2022 because of the combination of strong demand and restrained supply in the markets for goods, services, and labor. Inflation then subsides as supply disruptions dissipate, energy prices decline, and less accommodative monetary policy takes hold. Since mid-2021, inflation has reache

9、d its fastest pace in four decades. In CBOs projections, the price index for personal consumption expenditures increases by 4.0 percent in 2022. In response, the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy and interest rates rise rapidly. Real GDP grows by 3.1 percent in 2022, and the unemployment rate

10、 averages 3.8 percent. After 2022, economic growth slows, and inflationary pressures ease (see Chapter 2). Changes in CBOs Economic Projections. fte agencys projection of real GDP growth is similar to what it was last summer for 2022, higher for 2023 and 2024, and similar over the remainder of the p

11、rojection period. CBO currently projects higher inflation in 2022 and 2023 than it did last July; prices are increasing more rapidly across many sectors of the economy than CBO anticipated. CBO now expects both short- and long-term interest rates over the coming decade to be higher, on average, than

12、 in its previous forecast, partly reflecting higher inflation. www.cbo.gov/publication/57950ContentsVisual Summary 1Chapter 1: The Outlook for Deficits and Debt 5Overview 5Deficits 6Debt 13Uncertainty About the Outlook for Deficits and Debt 16The Long-Term Outlook for the Budget 19Chapter 2: The Eco

13、nomic Outlook 21Overview 21Recent Economic Developments 24Fiscal and Monetary Policies 27The Economic Outlook for 2022 to 2026 32The Economic Outlook for 2027 to 2032 41Projections of Income for 2022 to 2032 44Uncertainty About the Economic Outlook 44Comparison With CBOs July 2021 Economic Projectio

14、ns 48Comparison With Other Economic Projections 52Chapter 3: The Spending Outlook 57Overview 57Mandatory Spending 59Discretionary Spending 74Net Interest 80Uncertainty About the Spending Outlook 81Chapter 4: The Revenue Outlook 83Overview 83Past and Projected Changes in the Composition of Revenues 8

15、6Individual Income Taxes 86Payroll Taxes 89Corporate Income Taxes 90Smaller Sources of Revenues 92Tax Expenditures 95Uncertainty About the Revenue Outlook 98Chapter 5: Budgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Spending and Revenues 101Overview 101Alternative Assumptions About Discretion

16、ary Funding 101Alternative Assumptions About Revenue Policies 104ii THE BUDGET AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: 2022 TO 2032MAy 2022Appendix A: Changes in CBOs Baseline Projections Since July 2021109Overview109Legislative Changes110Economic Changes115Technical Changes118Appendix B: The 10-Year Outlook for Majo

17、r Federal Trust Funds125Overview125How Trust Funds Work126Trust Funds Effects on the Budget127Social Securitys Trust Funds128Trust Funds for Federal Employees Retirement Programs130Medicares Trust Funds130Highway Trust Fund132Appendix C: CBOs Economic Projections for 2022 to 2032133List of Tables an

18、d Figures135About This Document137Boxes2-1. Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Employment and Wages of Different Demographic Groups282-2. Economic Effects of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act313-1. Categories of Federal Outlays603-2. How Sequestration Affects CBOs Projections of Man

19、datory Spending643-3. Assumptions About Payments From Trust Funds That Are Scheduled to Continue683-4. How the IIJA Affects CBOs Baseline Projections of Discretionary Spending764-1. How Funding for the Internal Revenue Service Affects CBOs Baseline Projections of Revenues855-1. Effects of the Pandem

20、ic-Related Public Health Emergency on CBOs Baseline Projections102Notesfte budget projections in this report include the effects of legislation enacted through April 8, 2022, and are based on the Congressional Budget Offices economic projections. ftose economic projections reflect economic developme

21、nts through March 2, 2022. fte projections do not include budgetary or economic effects of subsequent legislation, economic developments, administrative actions, or regulatory changes.Unless this report indicates otherwise, all years referred to in describing the budget outlook are federal fiscal ye

22、ars, which run from October 1 to September 30 and are designated by the calendar year in which they end. Years referred to in describing the economic outlook are calendar years.Numbers in the text, tables, and figures may not add up to totals because of rounding.Some of the figures in this report us

23、e shaded vertical bars to indicate periods of recession. (A recession extends from the peak of a business cycle to its trough.)Previous editions of this report often included an appendix of historical budget data. ftose data and other supplemental data for this analysis are available on CBOs website

24、 (www.cbo.gov/ publication/57950#data), as are a glossary of common budgetary and economic terms (www.cbo.gov/publication/42904), a description of how CBO prepares its baseline budget projec- tions (www.cbo.gov/publication/53532), a description of how CBO prepares its economic forecast (www.cbo.gov/

25、publication/53537), and previous editions of this report (https:/go.usa.gov/xQrzS).Visual SummaryIn this report, the Congressional Budget Office describes its projections of the federal budget and the U.S. economy under current law for this year and the decade that follows. Cumulative deficits proje

26、cted for the 20222031 period are larger than those in the projections that CBO published last July. Revenues have increased in CBOs projections, buoyed in part by the stronger-than-anticipated economy, which CBO expects to persist. But higher projected infla- tion and interest rates have pushed up o

27、utlays for interest payments on federal debt and for benefit programs such as Social Security. Recently enacted legislation has increased CBOs projections of discretionary spending.DeficitsIn CBOs projections, the federal budget deficit (adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of cer

28、tain payments) decreases from 12.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 to 3.9 percent this year and to 3.7 percent in 2023. fte projected shortfall increases to6.1 percent of GDP in 2032significantly larger than the 3.5 percent of GDP that deficits have averaged over the past 50 years.Pe

29、rcentage of Gross Domestic ProductProjectedPrimary Deficitor SurplusNet Interest OutlaysTotal Deficit or Surplus50510151972198219922002201220222032See Figure 1-1 on page 6Rising interest rates and mounting debt cause net interest outlays to double as a percentage of GDP over the coming decadefrom 1.

30、6 percent in 2022 to 3.3 percent in 2032.Adjusted to exclude the effects of timing shifts, primary deficits (which exclude net interest costs) increase from 2.3 percent of GDP in 2022 to2.9 percent in 2032, exceeding their 50-year average of 1.5 percent of GDP in each year of the projection period.T

31、rillions of Dollars20222031 Deficit in CBOs July 2021 Baseline20222031 Deficit in CBOs May 2022 Baseline12.114.5Legislative Changes Net Increases in Mandatory and Discretionary Outlays Attributable to Economic Changes Increases in Net Interest Outlays Resulting From Higher Interest Rates and Higher InflationOther Econo